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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek

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This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around the political difficulties surrounding such behavioral transformation. The paper performs a meta-review of long-term energy forecasts since the end of the 1960s in order to put in perspective the controversies around technological optimism about the potential for cheap, large-scale, carbon-free energy production. This retrospective analysis encompasses 116 scenarios conducted over 36 years and analyzes their predictions for a) fossil fuels, b) nuclear energy, and c) renewable energy. The analysis demonstrates how the predicted relative shares of these three types of energy have evolved since 1970, for two cases: a) predicted shares in 2010, which shows how the initial outlooks for the 2000-2010 period have been revised as a function of observed trends; and b) predicted shares for t+30, which shows how these revisions have affected medium-term prospects. The analysis shows a decrease, since 1970, in technological optimism about switching away from fossil fuels; this decrease is unsurprisingly correlated with a decline in modelers' beliefs in the suitability of nuclear energy. But, after a trend of increasing optimism, a declining trend also characterizes renewable energies in the 1980s and 1990s before a slight revival of technological optimism about renewables in the aftermath of Kyoto.

Biomass --- Climate change --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Climate change Policy --- Coal --- Emission --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy Demand --- Energy production --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Energy sources --- Energy supply --- Environment --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Fossil --- Fossil fuels --- Free energy --- Gas --- Generation --- Nuclear energy --- Oil --- Primary energy --- Primary energy supply --- Renewable energies --- Renewable energy --- Wind

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BPB1604 --- Développement durable --- Changement climatique --- Duurzame ontwikkeling --- Klimaatsverandering --- Energie 620.9 --- Klimaatverandering --- Energy policy --- Energy development --- Climatic changes --- Sustainable development --- Economic aspects --- Environmental aspects --- Development, Sustainable --- Ecologically sustainable development --- Economic development, Sustainable --- Economic sustainability --- ESD (Ecologically sustainable development) --- Smart growth --- Sustainable economic development --- Economic development --- Energy and state --- Power resources --- State and energy --- Industrial policy --- Energy conservation --- Changes, Climatic --- Changes in climate --- Climate change --- Climate change science --- Climate changes --- Climate variations --- Climatic change --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climatic variations --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Climatology --- Climate change mitigation --- Teleconnections (Climatology) --- Energy resources development --- Energy source development --- Power resources development --- Government policy --- cambio climático --- klimatska promjena --- tibdil fil-klima --- промена климе --- klimatförändring --- alteração climática --- kliimamuutus --- sprememba podnebja --- климатска промена --- zmiany klimatyczne --- climate change --- промяна на климата --- cambiamento climatico --- schimbare climatică --- ndryshim klimaterik --- změna klimatu --- klimata maiņa --- éghajlatváltozás --- zmena podnebia --- klimato kaita --- klimaatsverandering --- Klimaveränderung --- ilmastonmuutos --- klimaændring --- κλιματική αλλαγή --- az éghajlat változása --- modificación del clima --- klimatiskā izmaiņa --- промена на климата --- klimatická změna --- klimatická zmena --- climatic change --- schimbări climatice --- darnus vystymasis --- fenntartható fejlődés --- održivi razvoj --- дълготрайно развитие --- varig udvikling --- одржлив развој --- żvilupp sostenibbli --- trvalo udržateľný rozvoj --- säästev areng --- hållbar utveckling --- zhvillim i qëndrueshëm --- одрживи развој --- sustainable development --- kestävä kehitys --- desenvolvimento sustentável --- trvale udržitelný rozvoj --- αειφόρος ανάπτυξη --- dauerhafte Entwicklung --- dezvoltare durabilă --- sviluppo sostenibile --- ekorozwój --- ilgtspējīga attīstība --- duurzame ontwikkeling --- desarrollo sostenible --- trajnostni razvoj --- bioekonomie --- bioekonómia --- développement soutenable --- bioenergetyka --- ekorazvoj --- développement viable --- trvalý rozvoj --- tvarioji plėtra --- bæredygtig udvikling --- ekološko utemeljeni razvoj --- økologisk udvikling --- οικοανάπτυξη --- udržateľný rozvoj --- bioøkonomi --- bioeconomía --- sviluppo praticabile --- desenvolvimento sustentado --- desenvolvimento durável --- bioéconomie --- ecodesenvolvimento --- ecodesarrollo --- bioekonomija --- bio-economie --- eco-ontwikkeling --- ökológiai fejlődés --- βιοοικονομία --- биоекономија --- rozvoj udržitelný --- nachhaltige Entwicklung --- eco-development --- umweltgerechte Entwicklung --- βιώσιμη ανάπτυξη --- jätkusuutlik areng --- ekologicky uvědomělý rozvoj --- sviluppo durevole --- ökologische Entwicklung --- ecosviluppo --- bio-ekonomiska attīstība --- ekologinė plėtra --- bio-economy --- bioeconomia --- bioökonoomia --- ekozhvillim --- bioekonomia --- écodéveloppement --- bioekonomi --- bioekonomika --- uthållig utveckling --- Biowirtschaft --- еколошки развој --- zrównoważony rozwój --- biogazdaság --- bioeconomy --- σταθερή και διαρκής ανάπτυξη --- desenvolvimento viável --- zukunftsfähige Entwicklung --- desarrollo duradero --- athrú aeráide --- forbairt inbhuanaithe --- Energy policy - Economic aspects --- Energy development - Economic aspects --- Energy development - Environmental aspects --- Climatic changes - Environmental aspects --- Développement durable

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This note highlights a major reason to limit climate change to the lowest possible levels. This reason follows from the large increase in uncertainty associated with high levels of warming. This uncertainty arises from three sources: the change in climate itself, the change’s impacts at the sector level, and their macroeconomic costs. First, the greater the difference between the future climate and the current one, the more difficult it is to predict how local climates will evolve, making it more difficult to anticipate adaptation actions. Second, the adaptive capacity of various economic sectors can already be observed for limited warming, but is largely unknown for larger changes. The larger the change in climate, therefore, the more uncertain is the final impact on economic sectors. Third, economic systems can efficiently cope with sectoral losses, but macroeconomic-level adaptive capacity is difficult to assess, especially when it involves more than marginal economic changes and when structural economic shifts are required. In particular, these shifts are difficult to model and involve thresholds beyond which the total macroeconomic cost would rise rapidly. The existence of such thresholds is supported by past experiences, including economic disruptions caused by natural disasters, observed difficulties funding needed infrastructure, and regional crises due to rapid economic shifts induced by new technologies or globalization. As a consequence, larger warming is associated with higher cost, but also with larger uncertainty about the cost. Because this uncertainty translates into risks and makes it more difficult to implement adaptation strategies, it represents an additional motive to mitigate climate change.

Climatic changes --- Economic aspects.

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